Moore’s Law states that every 1 to 2 years the number of transistors that can fit on a given size computer chip will double. Thanks to this law, chips have gotten smaller, faster, more efficient, and cheaper. But today, there are four key problems that trip up this trend, potentially ending Moore’s Law and fundamentally changing how computing progresses. Sajan Saini and George Zaidan investigate. [Directed by Jeff Le Bars, JetPropulsion, narrated by Adrian Dannatt, music by Stephen LaRosa].
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[00:00:02] Want a deeper dive into the ways AI is shaping our work, our lives, and the world we live in? Then I recommend Pioneers of AI. Hosted by AI scientist, investor, and author Dr. Raina L. Calubi, Pioneers of AI takes you behind the headlines for a look at what's really happening in the fast-changing world of AI. Featuring insights from the leading creators, critics, and thinkers on the forefront of this exciting technology, Pioneers is your guide to understanding and anticipating what comes next.
[00:00:31] Hear Pioneers of AI on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, or anywhere you find podcasts. Ever wondered what powers those tiny devices we carry in our pockets? Our phones and so much of our tech today are a marvel of engineering involving machines so complex and expensive, they cost hundreds of millions of dollars.
[00:00:58] In fact, just installing one of these behemoth machines takes a small army of engineers and months of painstaking work. We're diving deep into the world of microchips and the fascinating challenges of keeping up with Moore's Law, which predicts the relentless march of computing power. But what happens when those tiny transistors can't shrink any further? What happens when our chips generate enough heat to fry an egg?
[00:01:25] And what about the environmental cost of this technological race? This is TED Tech, a podcast from the TED Audio Collective. I'm your host, Sherelle Dorsey. Today, we'll listen to this TED-Ed lesson by research scientist Sajun Sani and science communicator George Zayden. In this lesson, they investigate the challenges of advancing computer chips to power our technology now and in the future.
[00:01:56] But before we dive in, a quick break to hear from our sponsors. And now, TED lesson. In the Netherlands, there's an ambitious company that builds one of the most advanced and expensive tools in the world. A single unit costs hundreds of millions of dollars.
[00:02:22] And when companies buy one, they also need 250 engineers to install the 165-ton device in a process that typically takes half a year. But despite this steep cost in time and money, many microchip makers desperately want one of these machines. The $100 million question is why? The answer has to do with something called Moore's Law. First coined by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore, this law states that every one to two years,
[00:02:52] the number of transistors that can fit on a given size computer chip will double. And by extension, the rough number of calculations that chip can do per second will also double. Now, this law isn't a physical law like gravity. It's just a trend more observed during the early 1960s. But chip makers turned that trend into a goal. And in turn, consumers learned to expect computing progress to continue at this exponentially fast pace.
[00:03:19] And the amazing thing is, for six decades, it pretty much has. Thanks to Moore's Law, chips have gotten smaller, faster, more efficient and cheaper. But today, there are four key problems that trip up this trend, potentially ending Moore's Law and fundamentally changing how we make progress in computing. The first is transistor size. Transistors are basically on-off switches. And these building blocks of digital computing have been shrinking since the 1960s.
[00:03:49] But recently, they've gotten so small, quantum physics has begun to interfere with their functions. When a transistor switch, or gate, is less than 20 nanometers, electrons will tunnel along it continuously, turning a crisp on-off switch into a hazy dimmer. The second problem is heat. As chip makers make components smaller and more complex, the copper lines that run between them need to be thinner and longer.
[00:04:15] This increases their electrical resistance and generates high heat that impairs chip performance and can't be easily dissipated. Today's chips can already run hot enough to cook an egg, and temperatures are only predicted to increase without new innovations. While both these issues represent limits in the fundamental physics of chip making, researchers haven't stopped trying to solve them. Unfortunately, their solutions often exacerbate the third major problem,
[00:04:43] chip making's environmental impact. For example, swapping copper lines for ruthenium could help pack transistors more tightly and keep chips smaller. But that metal is far scarcer than copper and would require new mining infrastructure. Similarly, the technology currently used to make today's smallest transistors requires huge amounts of energy and chemicals called perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl,
[00:05:10] substances which can take thousands of years to break down in the environment. Managing these first three problems contributes to the final issue, cost. To keep achieving Moore's Law, chip makers have to make individual chip components smaller. And this is where that costly $400 million machine comes in. This marvel of chip making science shoots a stream of tin droplets into a vacuum chamber
[00:05:36] before blasting them with a high energy laser that vaporizes the tin to create plasma. In turn, the plasma emits a 13.5 nanometer wavelength of ultraviolet light that can be used to produce incredibly small transistors. This remarkable feat of engineering has helped chip makers keep up with Moore's Law. But as chips keep getting denser, intricate manufacturing plants keep getting more expensive.
[00:06:04] This trend has been so consistent, it's actually earned the nickname Moore's Second Law. Obviously, all these trajectories are unsustainable. Manufacturing plants can't keep increasing in price, our ecosystems can't endure endless mining and pollution, and the laws of physics are unlikely to change any time soon. Fortunately, Moore's Law is flexible, and there's no reason we can't introduce new goals to keep making computing progress responsibly.
[00:06:33] Perhaps we could introduce a new sustainability law. Smaller transistors already use less material and produce less e-waste, and advancements in electronic-photonic integration are allowing chips to use less energy and generate less heat. So perhaps chips should be made twice as sustainable every several years. Whatever the answer is, we make the laws, so the future is up to us.
[00:07:15] In 2024, the Biden administration signed into law the Building Chips in America Act of 2023. This move exempts certain semiconductor production projects from environmental reviews required under the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969. Bypassing these environmental safeguards may accelerate the construction of semiconductor facilities in the U.S. That was the goal of this bill,
[00:07:41] but it comes at a steep cost to both the environment and public health. The central concern lies in the semiconductor industry's long-standing reliance on toxic forever chemicals, including PFAs and other hazardous substances. Testing conducted downstream from those semiconductors raises concerns about their impact on surrounding communities and ecosystems. It's a bit of a paradox.
[00:08:10] Semiconductors are crucial for building a green economy, yet their production can be harmful to the environment. The push for renewable energy in electric vehicles is driving a surge in demand for chips, but manufacturing those chips can generate pollution and rely on hazardous substances. Despite this tension, the semiconductor industry is increasingly focused on sustainability, reducing water and energy usage over time. Over the past decade,
[00:08:37] companies have been working to minimize their environmental impact. Companies like Intel have committed to achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions and its global operations by 2040 and aims to use 100% renewable electricity by 2030. They are also investing in water conservation and waste reduction efforts. Samsung has pledged to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and is focusing on water conservation. They have implemented a new environmental strategy
[00:09:07] that includes reducing carbon emissions throughout their product's life cycles. TSMC aims to use 100% renewable energy by 2050 and has set a target of achieving a 25% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. They are also working on improving water efficiency and reducing waste. NVIDIA is increasing its use of renewable energy and aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. They are also working on reducing emissions
[00:09:36] in their supply chain. There's no perfect solution that makes semiconductor manufacturing immediately sustainable. But efforts like these, designed to mitigate impact, are a step in the right direction. And that's it for today. TED Tech is part of the TED Audio Collective. This episode was produced by Nina Bird Lawrence, edited by Alejandra Salazar,
[00:10:04] and fact-checked by Julia Dickerson. Special thanks to Maria Latias, Tonsika Sangmarnivong, Farah Degrunge, Daniela Belarreso, and Roxanne Hilash. I'm Sherelle Dorsey. Thanks for listening.