AI Adoption's J-Curve: North Korean Scams, Microsoft Email Changes, and Global Tech Insights

[00:00:02] It's Friday, April 4th, 2025, and I'm Dave Solt. Four things to know today. AI adoption, why the road to innovation is bumpy but worth it, according to experts. North Korean IT scams go global while Microsoft gets tough on spam, plus the DoD's Signal investigation. Enable integrates, TDCynics finances and Microsoft bets on cloud PCs, what MSPs need to know, and

[00:00:27] AI hype versus reality are incremental gains enough to compete globally. This is the Business of Tech. A new study by researchers at the University of Toronto, University of Oklahoma, the Census Bureau, and the National Bureau of Economic Research at Stanford examines the impact of artificial intelligence in American manufacturing. Utilizing data from the U.S. Census Bureau for the years 2017

[00:00:54] and 2021, the researchers identify a productivity pattern known as the J-Curve. This indicates that companies experience short-term productivity losses before realizing long-term gains following AI adoption. The study highlights that initial use of industrial AI leads to significant increases in work-in-progress inventory and investment in robotics, while also resulting in labor reductions and declines in profitability.

[00:01:23] Notably, older businesses are more affected by these losses, though growth-oriented strategies can mitigate them. The findings suggest that early adopters of AI see stronger growth between 2017 and 2021, provided they survive the initial phase. The research emphasizes that AI's benefits may not be immediately evident, particularly for established firms.

[00:01:47] A panel of artificial intelligence researchers has offered that the field is currently pursuing the development of human-like intelligence in the wrong manner. The insight emerged from the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence's 2025 Presidential Panel on the Future of AI Research, which included a report from 24 experts.

[00:02:09] The report noted that 79% of respondents believe that public perceptions of AI capabilities do not align with the reality of research, with 90% stating that this mismatch is hindering progress. Notably, 76% of surveyed researchers indicated that merely scaling up current AI approaches will not lead to achieving human-like intelligence.

[00:02:33] The panel emphasizes a cautious and collaborative approach to AI development advocating for safety and ethical governance. And a recent Pew Research Center survey reveals a significant gap in perceptions about artificial intelligence between experts and the general public.

[00:02:51] While 56% of AI experts believe that AI will positively impact the United States over the next 20 years, only 17% of adults share this optimism, with 35% fearing a negative impact. The survey, which included over 5,000 randomly selected adults, indicated that most Americans are less confident about AI improving their workplaces, healthcare, and education.

[00:03:16] Notably, 64% of the public expects fewer jobs due to AI, compared to just 19% of experts. Despite the rapid rise of generative AI tools, many Americans express more concern than excitement, particularly regarding issues like job loss and misinformation. The report underscores the desire for more personal control over AI and highlights widespread worries about government oversight. Why do we care?

[00:03:44] The University of Toronto study highlights a crucial lesson for any business considering AI. Initial productivity declines are not uncommon. For manufacturers, and likely other sectors, the adoption phase brings complexity, increased investment, and even reductions in profitability before yielding gains. Older and more established businesses are hit harder, often due to legacy processes and cultural resistance.

[00:04:10] Growth-oriented strategies can mitigate these losses, emphasizing the need for well-planned AI implementation rather than a quick fix. The takeaway here is the need for a balanced approach. Providers should avoid hyping AI solutions without evidence, and instead focus on practical, tangible applications that clients can realistically benefit from. Moreover, staying informed about AI research can help maintain credibility and manage expectations.

[00:04:40] Today's episode is supported by Huntress. Most cybersecurity solutions are built from massive enterprises with big budgets. Not Huntress. They're the fully-managed cybersecurity platform built for all businesses, not just the 1%. Huntress purposely builds security solutions like EDR, ITDR, SIM, and security awareness training to equip their team of elite threat hunters to handle the heavy lifting of security for you.

[00:05:06] When threat actors strike, Huntress' 24x7 Global Sock shuts them down before they're even on anyone else's radar. But they do more than just chase alerts. They lead the charge in industry research and knowledge, bringing expert protection and peace of mind. That's why users on G2 rate their EDR number one for growing businesses. To see how their expert threat hunting team gets the job done, visit Huntress.com slash MSB Radio.

[00:05:36] And in updates to stories I have previously touched on, a recent report from Google's Threat Intelligence Group reveals that North Korea's IT worker scam, which previously targeted U.S. companies, is now spreading across Europe. This expansion comes after U.S. law enforcement efforts disrupted many operations in the states. The report indicates that North Korean operatives are actively seeking jobs in sectors such as defense and government, using fabricated references and identities.

[00:06:06] One individual reportedly operated at least 12 different personas across Europe and the United States. North Korean IT workers can earn over $300,000 annually, with teams potentially generating over $3 billion each year. The scammers are increasingly targeting large organizations, threatening to leak sensitive information if they are discovered. The FBI has confirmed this shift in tactics, stating that more North Koreans are now attempting to extort companies.

[00:06:36] The report highlights the complex logistical networks established by these operatives, allowing them to appear as if they are working locally while actually operating from countries such as China and Russia. The Department of Defense has launched an investigation into Secretary of Defense Pete Hedges' use of the encrypted messaging app Signal, after allegations that classified military information about operations in Yemen was shared in a group chat that included journalist Jeffrey Goldberg.

[00:07:05] The Senate Armed Services Committee, led by Republican Roger Wicker and Democrat Jack Reed, requested the investigation, raising concerns about the potential security risks associated with discussing sensitive information on unclassified networks. The Pentagon's guidelines suggest that the detailed operational plans discussed could be classified at least at the secret level.

[00:07:28] The inquiry will assess compliance with DoD policies regarding the use of commercial messaging applications for official businesses. Microsoft is implementing new requirements for high-volume email senders, specifically targeting those sending more than 5,000 emails per day. The changes aim to enhance email authentication and improve security against spoofing and phishing attacks. Starting in May, non-compliant messages will be directed to the junk folder, with potential future rejections for continued non-compliance.

[00:07:58] Senders will be required to adhere to stricter standards, including mandatory sender policy framework, domain keys identified mail, and domain-based message authentication standards, also known as DMARC. Why do we care? The expansion of North Korean IT worker scams from the U.S. to Europe is a concerning development. These operatives are targeting high-value sectors like defense and government, leveraging fabricated identities to secure lucrative positions. Be warned.

[00:08:27] DMARC is coming from Microsoft's consumer products, and it's natural to expect their business offerings next. I'm simply advancing the story around the signal issues. If you missed Monday's episode, I did a deep dive on why you care. Enable has announced new integrations, including Xcurrent, X-U-R-R-E-N-T, an AI-powered IT service management platform, and SeedPod Cyber, which offers streamlined cyber insurance solutions.

[00:08:55] Also included ScalePad, Ruist, Dirdax, Signal 4, and WebRoot. Disclosure, I'm a shareholder. TD Cynics has launched its capital financing arm in the U.K., consolidating all financial services to provide partners with enhanced options for financing their business opportunities. Transactions below £250,000 can now be processed automatically, resulting in faster approvals with fewer rejections.

[00:09:19] And they have financing options starting at £1,000 and flexible terms ranging from one to five years. BugCrowd has launched a new managed service provider program aimed at enhancing penetration testing capabilities for small businesses. The initiative addresses a significant backlog of compliance-related tests among small and medium-sized businesses, helping them meet regulatory requirements efficiently. The program leverages the expertise of ethical hackers, enabling providers to offer affordable and reliable compliance testing.

[00:09:49] The new program promises to speed up engagements, allowing partners to start projects in about three business days, which will enhance security capabilities for small businesses. And Microsoft has launched its new business-oriented mini desktop PC, the Windows 365 Link, which connects directly to the company's cloud service. Priced at $349.99, this device is designed to streamline IT management for businesses by reducing the need for hands-on support.

[00:10:16] Unlike traditional personal computers, the Windows 365 Link operates over the internet with a cloud server, allowing users to work remotely while booting up in seconds. Currently, it's available for purchase in several countries, including the U.S., Canada, the U.K., and Australia, though it's primarily marketed to businesses rather than consumers. Why do we care? I'm intrigued to see how well that Windows 365 Link sells. There's a business case there, for sure. If you recognize a need in the other stories, I've done my job for the other announcements.

[00:10:48] Time for some big ideas. A recent opinion piece on the New York Times really struck me. Thomas L. Friedman explores the growing technological advancements in China, particularly through the lens of Huawei's expansive research campus, which spans the size of 225 football fields and accommodates up to 35,000 workers. Friedman notes that while the United States once served as a beacon of innovation, many now look to China for the future.

[00:11:14] He highlights that China produces approximately three and a half million graduates in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics each year, outpacing the total number of graduates in all disciplines in the United States. Friedman also critiques U.S. policies under President Trump, suggesting that the focus on tariffs and isolationism could hinder American innovation, as China continues to integrate artificial intelligence into its manufacturing processes at an alarming rate.

[00:11:41] He emphasizes the need for a collaborative approach, proposing a strategy of made in America by American workers in partnership with Chinese technology. The Times was on a roll, and Tressie McMillan-Cottom discusses the limitations of artificial intelligence, suggesting that the technology has not lived up to its transformative promises. She suggests that while AI can improve efficiency in certain tasks, such as analyzing medical data,

[00:12:08] its applications often result in mediocre outcome, referred to as mid-tech. For instance, AI is frequently used for mundane tasks like scheduling and meal planning, rather than groundbreaking innovations. The piece highlights a warning from two economists who describe these so-so technologies as failing to create meaningful change in the workplace. The article also raises concerns about AI's potential to undermine expertise and education,

[00:12:36] pointing out that it may reinforce existing inequalities in knowledge and skills. She concludes that despite its possibilities, AI is currently more of a tool for demoralizing workers than a revolutionary force in society. Now, why do we care? There's a real tension out there related to all this tech.

[00:12:56] How are you preparing for a more fragmented global tech landscape, particularly by considering diversifying your supplier base and offering solutions that can pivot quickly if geopolitical tensions disrupt supply chains? Are you encouraging clients to invest in automation and AI as part of a broader resilience strategy? And with all the hype, are the products just mid?

[00:13:17] Or are the cumulative effects of these incremental improvements, like better logistics, streamlined customer service, or automated data processing, driving significant value over time? Or could the answer be yes? Often, the most boring things are the most valuable. This episode is supported by Comet Backup. As IT providers, we've all been there. The phone rings, your largest client is absolutely panicked. They need you to restore their data as soon as possible.

[00:13:47] That's where Comet Backup comes in. Comet is an all-in-one backup solution designed specifically for IT professionals. Whether you need to protect computers, servers, virtual environments, emails, or databases, Comet Backup empowers you to manage backups on your terms. You choose where the data is stored, backup to local on-prem storage, or any of the leading cloud providers. Visit CometBackup.com to start your free 30-day trial today.

[00:14:13] Get $100 free credit when you sign up with the promo code MSPRADIO. Comet Backup, the backup solution that MSPs trust. Thanks for listening. Today is National Picky Eaters Day, also National Quartered Blue Day, and International Carrot Day. It's also National Hug a Newsperson Day. Virtual ones are accepted. I'll be speaking on a webinar on April 22nd about inbound marketing in the AI era with the author of a new book.

[00:14:43] Link in the show notes and description to register. The Business of Tech is written and produced by me, Dave Sobel, under ethics guidelines posted at businessof.tech. If you've enjoyed the show, make sure you've subscribed or followed on your favorite platform. It's free and helps directly. Give us a review, too. If you want to support the show, visit patreon.com slash MSPRADIO, and you'll get access to content early.

[00:15:10] Or buy our Why Do We Care merch at businessof.tech. Have a question you want answered? We take listener questions, send them in, ideally as a voice memo or video to question at MSPRADIO.com. I answer listener questions live on our Wednesday live show on YouTube and LinkedIn. If you've got a comment or a thought on a story, put it in the comments if you're on YouTube, or reach out on LinkedIn if you're listening to the podcast.

[00:15:37] And if you want to advertise on the show, visit MSPRADIO.com slash engage. Once again, thanks for listening, and I will talk to you again on our next episode. Part of the MSP Radio Network.